Current Mesoscale Discussions
SPC MD 1492
MD 1492 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1492
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025
Areas affected...eastern ND and far northwest MN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 281851Z - 282015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally strong gusts may initially
develop along a cold front in eastern North Dakota, and could be
sustained through late afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...Early storm development is underway along the weak
surface cold front, likely aided by a minor mid-level impulse
upstream over central ND. Recent HRRR runs have trended towards this
earlier and farther north regime, unlike the bulk of 12Z HREF
guidance which indicated that far northeast SD into west-central MN
will be the genesis region later today. With influence of a decayed
MCS likely delaying that latter regime until evening, the short-term
severe threat into late afternoon may be confined to a portion of
eastern ND into far northwest MN. Low-level winds should remain weak
and generally veered, yielding minimal hodograph curvature. But this
combined with moderate buoyancy/deep-layer shear should result in
primarily a large hail threat. Overall storm coverage could be
fairly isolated, especially given the lack of cumulus ahead of the
front this early in the afternoon.
..Grams/Hart.. 06/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 47409879 48039857 48469814 48429711 48139666 47619648
46729635 46349652 46129671 46109842 46589912 47139894
47409879
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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SPC MD 1491
MD 1491 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 471... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1491
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025
Areas affected...Portions of central Pennsylvania into central New
York
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471...
Valid 281833Z - 282000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471
continues.
SUMMARY...Multiple strong, damaging gusts may still occur with an
eastward-advancing MCS, as well as with other strong storms that
manage to materialize over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...An MCS, with a history of producing multiple damaging
gusts, continues to advance eastward across central PA. Ahead of
this MCS, strong surface heating amid minimal convective inhibition
is supporting up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given marginal vertical wind
shear in the region, the MCS should continue eastward with a
damaging gust threat for a few more hours. However, the presence of
billow clouds, along with mesoanalysis output, suggest that stable
conditions exist downstream over eastern PA toward NJ. While airmass
modification should occur through the remainder of the afternoon, it
is unclear how residual stability would impact the downstream
damaging gust threat.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...
LAT...LON 39927947 40977866 41687796 42197748 43347580 43547539
43537519 43227498 42587497 41987502 41347538 40827592
40407637 40087699 39847758 39807851 39927947
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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SPC MD 1490
MD 1490 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1490
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025
Areas affected...Portions of southern and eastern Ohio...western
West Virginia...far southwestern Pennsylvania
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 281814Z - 281945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of strong/damaging wind gusts may occur with the
stronger storms this afternoon. A WW issuance is unlikely given the
sparse nature of the overall severe threat.
DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed ahead of a weak
frontal boundary, amid a modifying airmass behind an earlier MCS.
Here, surface temperatures are rising into the upper 80s F, that
combined with low 70s F dewpoints and 8 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates, are
boosting MLCAPE to 2500 J/kg. However, modest deep-layer westerly
flow is resulting in weak vertical wind shear, and with buoyancy
constrained to tall/narrow profiles, the main concern is for
damaging gusts originating from the stronger storm cores. The severe
threat should remain quite isolated, so a WW issuance is not
expected.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 40028274 40408229 40738155 40818107 40728061 40418018
39967993 39557988 39238005 38968044 38758097 38628159
38578201 38718243 38868271 38988289 40028274
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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SPC MD 1489
MD 1489 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1489
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025
Areas affected...portions of extreme northern South Carolina into
western North Carolina and western Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 281759Z - 281930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of strong/damaging wind gusts may accompany the
stronger pulse-cellular storms over the next several hours. However,
the overall severe threat should be isolated, and a WW issuance is
not expected.
DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular storms have initiated along and to the
lee of the central Appalachians due to strong diurnal heating and
orographic lift. Surface temperatures are already in the mid 80s F,
that with low 70s F dewpoints, are contributing to over 3000 J/kg
SBCAPE amid negligible convective inhibition. However, tropospheric
flow and deep-layer shear are very weak, and given poor mid-level
lapse rates, the aforementioned SBCAPE is constrained to tall/thin
profiles. As such, the main threat this afternoon is for brief and
localized, strong/damaging gusts with the heavier storm cores.
Therefore, the sparse nature of the severe threat should preclude a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...
LAT...LON 35118326 36308179 36818107 37728010 38227964 38367940
38297903 38137878 37507856 36707872 36087909 35677945
35338044 35048148 34918199 34778256 35118326
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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