Current Mesoscale Discussions
SPC MD 324
MD 0324 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83...84... FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS INTO SOUTHEAST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0324
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Areas affected...central/southern MS into southeast LA
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 83...84...
Valid 311116Z - 311245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 83, 84
continues.
SUMMARY...A line of convection will continue shifting east/southeast
across central/southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana this
morning, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...A robust line of convection, with embedded bowing
elements, will continue to shift east/southeast across the MCD area
this morning. A recent gust of at least 65 mph was noted at KJAN
with the northern bowing segment. A couple of intense bowing
segments have occasionally been noted across parts of south-central
LA. This activity is expected to continue producing severe/damaging
gusts with eastward extent through the morning given favorable
downstream instability and an increasing 850 mb southwesterly
low-level jet. Regional VWP data do indicated some modestly enlarged
low-level hodographs. However, 0-1 km shear is fairly weak, around
15-25 kt amid poor low-level lapse rates. This should temper the
tornado risk, though a brief spin-up could occur given the very
moist boundary layer and at least modest low-level instability.
..Leitman.. 03/31/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 32658950 32408861 31588825 30948834 30178872 29688957
29599086 29659207 29739249 29929270 30119277 30309262
30839183 31689072 32658950
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC MD 323
MD 0323 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85... FOR NORTHEAST MS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AL
Mesoscale Discussion 0323
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Areas affected...northeast MS into north-central AL
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 85...
Valid 311104Z - 311230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 85
continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential will spread east into portions of
northern/north-central AL this morning.
DISCUSSION...A QLCS/bowing line of convection near the northeast MS
state line will continue to shift east into portions of
northern/north-central AL this morning. Radar trends from KGWX
showed a few mesovortices/areas of rotation as this line approached
the radar. This indicates potential for locally enhanced damaging
gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. Regional VWP data shows modestly
enlarged low-level hodographs with 0-1 km shear around 25-35 kt on
the nose of an increasing southwesterly low-level jet. This may be
sufficient for a brief tornado, though the predominant risk is
expected to remain damaging gusts as the line of convection
continues east through the morning hours.
..Leitman.. 03/31/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 34308872 34368844 34228729 33998665 33718651 33388664
33178712 33088750 33088831 33118873 33198931 33698900
34308872
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more