National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussion
776
FXUS61 KRNK 181825
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
225 PM EDT Sun May 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather can be expected into early Monday. It will be
breezy at times. Unsettled weather is expected to return by
Tuesday, as another storm system heads toward our area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Message:
1) Dry with seasonal temperatures.
Ridge of high pressure will cross the forecast area tonight and
Monday. Winds should gradually diminish to a light breeze and
should not be as gusty Monday. Going to see some mid/high
clouds stream across the area with faster flow aloft and
embedded short waves and cloud debris from upstream deep
convection passing through attms. Models suggest a somewhat
stronger wave passing across our far southwestern CWA late in
the day Monday, accounting for chance pops there for tomorrow.
Aside from this feature expecting mainly dry conditions to
prevail through the near term.
Lows tonight...mid 40s to around 50 Mtns, to mid 50s Piedmont.
Highs Monday...70s in the Mtns. Lower 80s Piedmont.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
1) A few chances of upslope precipitation early this week followed
by a good chance of widespread precipitation in the middle of the
week.
Ridge riders will provide a few opportunities for at least upslope
precipitation for the western counties early in the week. By the
middle of the week, coupled surface lows will pass through and will
likely bring region-wide precipitation. The order events seems to be
(following the separate ridge riders) as followed: First, a warm
front passes through to provide rain and thunderstorms for the more
western and southern counties of the area. This is then shortly
followed by a cold front that will bring a QLCS Tuesday evening into
Wednesday morning. (Some individual models argue for an MCS and
there is still some uncertainty on the timing). Lastly, a shortwave
traveling around a cutoff low in Canada will bring a chance of
afternoon precipitation Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.
Winds will pick up as the cold front moves through, especially along
and west of the Blue Ridge due to more westerly winds. A modest low
level jet is set to pass by as a mid-week shortwave moves through
which will contribute to wind gusts of 25-35 mph at the highest
elevations.
Severe weather currently looks unlikely for the early next week
showers and is low for the mid-week`s storms. While bulk shear will
be favorable thanks to the low level jet and a 500mb jet streak over
the Mid-Atlantic, CAPE is averaging no more than a few hundred.
While a low CAPE, high shear scenario currently looks possible
ensemble guidance, SPC, and machine learning all suggest a very low
end chance for severe weather.
What is more likely, however, is flooding. With the repeated rounds
of showers, up to 1-1.5" of rain is possible in the more mountainous
counties in the west. The Weather Prediction Center has
placed a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall along and west of the
Blue Ridge and a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall in the WV
counties and Tazewell for the middle of the week to account for the
potential rainfall accumulation.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
1) Windy for the latter half of the week
2) Cool and drier air to take over
A rather underwhelming weather period compared to the earlier flood
and severe weather days of May. Surface winds will pick up from the
northwest with the cold front fully through, and sustained winds may
be between 10-20 mph with gusts of 25-40 mph at higher elevations. A
surface high pressure system will take over the region and will calm
winds down by the start of next week.
The new air mass that takes over will be considerably cooler and
drier. Backing of winds will support cold air advection and early
morning temperatures could be as low as in the 40s along and west of
the Blue Ridge. Guidance from NBM suggest wind chill values could be
in the 30s at higher elevations some mornings.
Some shortwaves may pass through as a cutoff low meanders about
towards the northeast, but the air is so dry any additional
precipitation will likely be trivial and upslope based
in the western mountains.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday...
PIREPS of LLWS near ROA. It appears to be from moderately
strong WNW wind aloft which has been trying to mix to the
surface. Introduced LLWS to the ROA/LYH/DAN Tafs for a few hours
to account for the reports. Think wind will eventually mix to
the surface resulting in gusty conditions for the remainder of
the afternoon. In addition to the LLWS getting reports of
turbulence aloft...and this will likely continue through the
remainder of the afternoon per winds running perpendicular to
the mountains with potential for wave clouds.
Aside from the winds and turbulence, general conditions were
VFR. Low level clouds with bases 040-070 were being observed
across northern WV/VA with SCT-BKN mid/upper level cloudiness to
the south and west...bases generally above 10kft.
Winds are expected to diminish at sunset with VFR persisting
through the 24 hour valid TAF.
OUTLOOK...
VFR into Monday. Clouds will increase from the west late Monday
with increasing probability for sub-VFR associated with
scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...PM
NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion
