National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussion
200
FXUS61 KRNK 241044
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
644 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture return will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the west today and more widespread tonight into
Friday. A cold front will cross the Appalachian Mountains on
Saturday to bring more widespread rain coverage. High pressure
should bring drier weather for early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM EST Thursday...
Key Message:
1) Precip chances edge back into the area from the southwest.
While we have had a stalled boundary south of the area and recent
dry conditions, some enhanced moisture and associated increased
precip chances looks to advect into the CWA from the southwest along
the western extent of some weak upper ridging. The greatest chance
looks to be confined to the western half of the CWA today, then
spreading further eastward across most of the area later tonight.
QPF looks quite light for the period with total amounts nearly a
quarter of an inch or less. There is some progged conditional
instability, though meager, so have some potential of general
thunderstorm development within some of the shower activity.
Temps look to remain above normal with highs this afternoon in the
70s for many locations and lows Friday morning a bit warmer than
this morning given the aforementioned increase of moisture/precip
chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...
Key Messages:
1) Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms Friday and Saturday
2) Cooler Sunday with quiet conditions
As low pressure approaches from the central plains and Midwest, it
will pick up the stalled front to our south. The offshore high will
continue its trajectory to the east, allowing the low to make a
slight turn northeast, and drag the stalled front north through the
forecast area on Friday as a warm front. This will overspread the
region with scattered showers for most of Friday, and then as the
low proceeds eastward, a cold front will cross over the Mid-Atlantic
on Saturday, producing another round of showers with thunderstorms.
The weather pattern will quiet down and dry out behind the cold
front, which will finish its transit of the area sometime late
Saturday. Drier air, a mid-level ridge, and encroaching surface high
pressure will all combine to clear skies and suppress further
showers after Saturday, making for a calm and slightly cooler than
recent Sunday.
Temperatures on Friday and Saturday with range from the mid 60s to
low 70s across the mountains, and up to the upper 70s in the
Piedmont and Southside. They might have been warmer with the
persistent southerly flow due to the off-coast high, but almost
round-the-clock cloud cover and rain showers will aid in cooling
things back down. Sunday will be about 5-10 degrees cooler than
Saturday in the post-frontal environment.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
Key Messages:
1) Drier weather on the way for next week
3) Mid-week front is next chance for showers in the Mid-Atlantic
Mid-level ridging reaching out of the southern CONUS and Gulf, as
well as a new zone of surface high pressure will both fight back any
precipitation going into next week, as well as reduce cloud cover.
Sitting in full sun in late April with southwesterly flow will allow
temperatures to rebound and become hot again, potentially into the
mid-80s for Southside VA by mid-week. Don`t expect much active
weather like rain or thunderstorms for the first half of the week.
The next cold front on its way could begin to make itself felt by
late Tuesday, draping scattered showers from the KY/TN valley
through the Delmarva.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Thursday...
Initial alto clouds for some sites this morning with some MVFR
cigs building in from the south. Initial winds light and VRB
then becoming mainly SE at 5-7 kts today. Shower chances and
possibly a thunderstorm mainly near BLF later this afternoon
into evening. Precip chances mainly increase eastward late
tonight into Friday along with a greater chance of more
widespread MVFR/IFR cigs.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Moisture increase and chances of showers and thunderstorms
along with sub-VFR conditions will increase Friday. A cold
front should cross the Appalachian Mountains by Saturday to
bring more widespread rain coverage. After the frontal passage,
high pressure will return by Sunday to provide VFR conditions at
all terminals through Monday.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AB/PH
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...VJ
LONG TERM...VJ
AVIATION...AB/PH
NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion
