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 Forecast Discussion

  
000
ACUS01 KWNS 270059
SWODY1
SPC AC 270058

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging winds,
and perhaps a tornado or two are possible this evening into the
overnight across eastern Oklahoma and north-central Texas into
western Arkansas late tonight.

...OK into TX and western AR and Ozarks...
A progressive shortwave trough over KS/OK will continue eastward
tonight into the Ozarks as a moist/unstable warm sector over
north-central TX and the eastern half of OK spreads into western AR.
A relatively narrow low-level moisture plume of upper 50s to around
60 degrees F dewpoints beneath 7+ degree C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates
have contributed to moderate buoyancy (1600 J/kg MLCAPE) as sampled
by the 27/00z OUN raob.  Area VAD winds indicate flow veering and
strengthening with height and will continue to support supercell
development before additional storm merging and cold pool
consolidation lead to some upscale growth across the Red River
Valley later this evening.  Large to very large hail is possible
with supercells this evening along with a risk for a tornado for the
stronger/more persistent low-level mesocyclones.  For short-term
details concerning the severe threat over north-central TX into
southeast OK, refer to MCD 338.  

The LLJ is forecast to slowly strengthen this evening and veer and
coincidentally, upscale growth is forecast and the potential for
severe gusts and wind damage will increase.  A gradual weakening in
storms and storm intensity is expected late this evening into the
overnight as storms move eastward into western AR and the Ozarks as
diminishing instability leads to a more isolated severe risk.

..Smith.. 03/27/2017

$$