000
FXUS61 KRNK 260130
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
930 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY... BRINING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
US...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM EDT SATURDAY...

IR PICS SHOW THAT THE EARLIER STREAMERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
FADED CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING ALLOWING TEMPS TO
FALL OFF RATHER QUICKLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS. HOWEVER HAVE
ANOTHER BATCH OF A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NW WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE OVER IN/IL. THIS COMPLEX OF CLDNS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
-SHRA LOOKS TO ALSO TRACK SE LIKELY AFFECTING THE WESTERN AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT TO WHAT EXTENT IFFY GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT OFF
EVENING RAOBS. THINK THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS COULD STAY
BASICALLY CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL A BIT LOWER. THIS SHOULD
STILL MATCH UP WELL WITH THE GOING FROST ADVISORY WHERE SHOULD BE
WELL INTO THE 30S IN THE NW VALLEYS SO NO ADJUSTS TO CURRENT
HEADLINES. ELSW THINK THE RIDGES AND SW ZONES WILL SEE A BIT MORE
WIND PER WAA ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER SO BUMPED THOSE AREAS UP A
NOTCH OR SO. OTRW DECREASED SKY GRIDS A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND THEN INCREASED WESTERN HALF AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT DRY GIVEN
SUCH ARID LOW LEVELS.

FOR SUNDAY A DEEP...BUT WEAKER...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE WEST SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
AREA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST VA/NW NC...BUT THIS WAS DISCOUNTED CONSIDERING THE DEPTH
OF DRY AIR EXPECTED TO PERSIST TOMORROW.

GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR PROJECTING HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...AND WE DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THESE
VALUES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...THUNDERSTORM
REMNANTS...WHICH COULD BE JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE THEY REACH OUR
REGION...MAY HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH SE WEST VA AND SW VA MONDAY. WITH
WAA AND STILL SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT AND CLOUDS...TEMPS MAY RUN A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...UNLESS CLOUDS LEAVE
QUICKER DURING THE DAY. BY TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS NORTH...BUT A
SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT COMBINED WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS/MAX
T/INSTABILITY CAN SET OFF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE RIDGES....YET
STILL SCATTERED. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ONE OF MANY WARM AND HUMID
EVENINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A 590DM UPPER
RIDGE CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO A REX BLOCK
AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE CONTINENTIAL DIVIDE. POPS DECREASE THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH SINKING MOTION AND THE PROFILE BECOMING TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN THE MOST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE
HIGHEST PEAKS BY END WEEK. 90F LOOKS POSSIBLE IN MOST OF THE CITIES
PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. UPPER AIR PATTERN MAY FLATTEN BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. HOWEVER
AN AXIS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO
THE NW DROPS SE. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE BUT A
MID DECK BETWEEN 8-12K FT LOOKS POSSIBLE ESPCLY AROUND KBLF-KBCB-
KROA LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

BRIEF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KLWB...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEEING
MUCH FOG AT ALL AS WINDS MAY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH WITH POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER AS WELL.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH EARLY HIGH/MID CLOUDS
DECREASING TO MORE SCATTERED NATURE COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS THE
WEAK IMPULSE PASSES AND HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES. NW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AS THOSE SEEN ON
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN NEXT WEEK
AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE NE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE VERY WARM/MOIST AIR THAT WILL
BE PUSHING IN FROM THE SW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER
SHOT AT SEEING A FEW SHRA/TSRA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH AT LEAST
OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR MID WEEK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
ALSO LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHTS ESPCLY VALLEYS AND WHERE
AFTERNOON/EVENING RAINFALL OCCURRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...JH/PH
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/PH